Sunday, June 04, 2006

The Top 100 - what an A list should look like

The Top 100 of PPCs who did not become MPs is shown below. Please scroll down to see the important caveats on these admittedly crude stats. Scroll further down the blog if you wish to win a bottle of champagne in my A list competition.

Headlines:

  • Only 15 A listers feature in the Top 100.
  • The Top 100 contains 23 females. 17 of these did not make the A list. This indicates that David Cameron's protestation that the current A list is needed to ensure that there are more women Tory MP's is spin. There are plenty of good female candidates who were ignored when the A list was compiled.
  • The average performance for a losing PPC was a loss of Conservative votes of -1.86%. For A listers it was -4.01%, and for all Conservative Candidates it was 2.21%.
  • 158 losing PPCs beat the national average, less than 1/6th of whom made the A list.
  • Only 2 PPCs with an Asian name got into the Top 100. 19 PPCs with Asian names were in the bottom 100 of PPCs. Many of these candidates did stand in inner-cities where the party performed poorly but the clear indication is that enlisting able Asians into the party should be made an urgent priority.
  • When compiling this list it became clear that regional swings meant little, many of the better results are from areas outside the South East.
  • Some of those below have already been selected for the next election, rightly so based on their performance

RESULTS ( A listers in red) . Top 100 as measured by increase in the Tory vote as a percentage of votes cast. As compiled by the TaxCutter

Dr Norma Lloyd-Nesling 86.67%
David Branch 64.47%
Stuart Cottis 59.68%
Mark Garnier 50.26%
Duncan McLellan 46.21%
Adrian Phillips 44.21%
Phillip Howells 34.65%
Annunziata Rees-Mogg 34.21%
Michael White 33.97%

David Potts 32.00%
Stephen Watson 28.07%
John Lamont 26.87%
Mark Jones 26.78%

Rob Halfon 25.02%
Mark Coote 24.75%
Roger Berry 23.61%
Harri Lloyd Davies 22.11%
Paul Stuart-Smith 21.74%
Mark Bowen 21.07%
Sean Moore 20.34%
Rishi Saha 19.84%
Henry Smith 19.31%
Stella Kyriazis 18.61%
Amanda Vigar 18.56%
Carolyn Abbot 18.55%
Mark Nicholson 18.03%
Sandy Bushby 18.00%
Dr William Morgan 17.98%
Guto Bebb 17.72%
Ginny Scrope 17.19%
Kevin Davis 17.02%
Owen Inskip 16.55%
Caroline Dinenage 16.49%
Andrew Griffith 16.43%

Brandon Lewis 16.31%
Piers Wauchope 15.85%
Sian Dawson 15.81%
Jonathan Morgan 15.51%
James Bethell 14.39%
David Ashton 14.29%
Gordon Henderson 13.97%
Myles Hogg 13.40%
Virginia Taylor 13.38%
Keith Chapman 13.04%
James McGrigor 12.98%
Justin Tomlinson 12.76%
Peter Duncan 12.74%
Julien Foster 12.69%
Bob Blackman 12.63%
Mark Pawsey 12.39%
Anne McIntosh MP 12.33%
Damian Hinds 12.18%
George Freeman 11.99%
Robert Oliver 11.94%
Margot James 11.83%
Michael McIntyre 11.34%
Philip Allott 11.31%
Paul Offer 11.18%
Marco Longhi 10.93%
Jonathan Gough 10.71%
Stephen Daughton 10.61%
Jeremy Bradshaw 10.41%
Nicola Talbot 10.19%
Howard Morton 10.18%
Tim Archer 10.10%
Tim Butcher 10.04%
Mark Formosa 9.76%
Mark Reckless 9.68%
Dominic Schofield 9.59%
Ken Andrew 9.51%
Garry Hague 9.40%
Andrew Griffiths 8.82%
David Morris 8.53%
Gabrielle Howatson 8.33%
Syed Kamall MEP 8.28%
Jonathan Mackie 8.24%
Edward Heckels 8.21%
Robert Buckland 8.14%
Colin Cromarty Bloom 8.06%
Melanie McLean 8.03%
Graham Evans 7.98%
Conor Burns 7.95%
Tom Biggins 7.93%
Judith Pattinson 7.77%
Maggie Throup 7.54%
Esther McVey 7.26%
Mike Mitchelson 7.02%
Eveleigh Moore-Dutton 6.89%
Spencer Drury 6.85%
Aaron Powell 6.80%
Leah Fraser 6.79%
Alun Cairns 6.57%
David Chambers 6.56%
Les Jones 6.40%
Diana Coad 6.38%
Alf Doran 6.25%
Suzy Davies 6.20%
Nicola Le Page 6.19%

Any questions, queries etc then please eMail me at taxcutter@tiscali.co.uk

Notes

The performance of 428 PPCs was examined.


There is a 3.33% reduction when comparing those who stood in 2001 as well as 2005 to cope with the fact that the Tory share of the vote increased more in 2001 than in 2005.

Caveats

These statistics are produced by comparing 2005 performance to 2001. For those who stood in 2001 and 2005 the comparison is to 1997 but with adjustments made for the national swing.
These are only meant to be a crude guide and I fully admit that they are imperfect numbers. On the otherhand I do not know of any better ones produced, but would be delighted to know about them. I do not know whether CCHQ produced similar statistics when compiling the A list. I suspect they did not, despite the obvious wisdom of doing so.

These statistics have not been adjusted so do not add or subtract for other factors such as Funds, party members in the constituency, work done in neighbouring marginals, time selected before the election, whether this was one of the 100 or so seats the LibDem bothered showing up in, whether there was a UKIP/Veritas candidate etc

Usual caveats to these statistics apply, please see below. 26 PPCs in Scotland could not be taken into account as they stood in seats that had had boundary changes, hence measuring their performance by comparison to results in previous General Elections was not possible without examining the results on a ward by ward basis; which I have not done.

4 Comments:

At 4:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very pretty site! Keep working. thnx!
»

 
At 7:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I say briefly: Best! Useful information. Good job guys.
»

 
At 6:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

interesting stuff. I'm Stephen Daughton and i was pleased to find myself on your top 100. I felt i performed well but i have not yet applied to the list for the next time round but am due to do so soon. I may use your statistics as evidence to support my application. It may be interesting to looki at swings as well, they offer slighty different results. I achieved one of 5.2% which was the largest from the Scots border to Scarborough and had all other PPC's gotten a similar swing there would have been a hung parliament.....not that anyone remotely near Central Office noticed this achievement of congratulated me or my team. sdaughton@hotmail.com

thanks again for the work there

 
At 6:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

interesting stuff. I'm Stephen Daughton and i was pleased to find myself on your top 100. I felt i performed well but i have not yet applied to the list for the next time round but am due to do so soon. I may use your statistics as evidence to support my application. It may be interesting to looki at swings as well, they offer slighty different results. I achieved one of 5.2% which was the largest from the Scots border to Scarborough and had all other PPC's gotten a similar swing there would have been a hung parliament.....not that anyone remotely near Central Office noticed this achievement of congratulated me or my team. sdaughton@hotmail.com

thanks again for the work there

 

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