Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Candidates already selected thump The A list

This is the corresponding performance, using precisely the same methodology, for seats where the candidate for the next General election has already been selected. All the same caveats about the usefulness of these statistics apply as before.

Mark Garnier 50.26%
Rob Halfon 28.35%
Justin Tomlinson 12.76%
Paul Offer 11.18%
Nick de Bois 9.09%
Robert Buckland 8.14%
Caroline Nokes 5.46%
Karen Lumley 5.26%
Nicky Morgan 5.10%
Iain Stewart 3.28%
Penny Mordaunt 3.00%
Andrew Bingham 2.41%
Lorraine Fullbrook 0.79%
Marcus Wood 0.55%
Christopher Pincher -1.33%

Looks like these constituencies got this right. On average they increased the Tory vote as a proportion of the voters by 9.62% and outperformed the national performance of 2.21% when comparing 2005 General Election to 2001.

The A list candidates who stood reduced the Tory vote on the same basis by 4.01%.

6 Comments:

At 9:30 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Taxcutter - you've done a lot of work here, but you've completely missed the point with this comparison. The seats that already have selected their candidates again were target seats last time and so had a) early candidate selection and b) loads of resources thrown at them. This times A listers fought last times No Hopers and in a No Hoper you have no association, no money and no time as you are selected just before the general election. Instead you spend your effort in the target seats above helping other candidates.

 
At 11:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not all these candidates were selected early - South Swindon didn't select until July 04.

 
At 8:18 PM, Anonymous Julie said...

So the last two or three were more or less duffers, with well below average performance.

Why has at least one of them since been readopted?

 
At 1:48 AM, Anonymous Justin Tomlinson said...

12.76%, thanks very much!

There was no way I was going to not finish the job off so I snapped their hands off when I was offered the chance to restand.

 
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