Sunday, May 28, 2006

The A list - the VoteWinning Index Results

So which A lister should you choose to win your key marginal. The purpose of this study is based on past performance at Parliamentary Elections, to deduce who are the biggest votewinners among the A List.

I have compiled a survey of all those on the A list, (with thanks for Tim Montgomery and Sam Coate's sterling work on Conservative Home), and per Guido Fawkes disclosure of the candidates for South Northamptonshire, have added a few other potentials. The index factor is determined by comparing Conservative Votes at the 2005 General Election and compares them to the 2001 Election as a percentage of total votes and hence aims to be wholly objective. For A listers who stood in both 2001 and 2005, or in 2001 only, the schedule has been adjusted by the National Swing between elections to try and make a 2001 performance comparable to a 2005 one. Obviously this ignores certain factors, eg local swings, strength of incumbent, independent candidates etc. However it does give some indication as to which A listers are more likely to win those key marginals!

Anything below 2.21 is a performance below the national average. 22 A listers are above the national average. 48 A listers are below the national average, a worrying factor given the fact these will stand in key seats.

Results in order.

1. Mark Coote 24.75%
2. Carolyn Abbot 18.55%
3. Caroline Dinenage 16.49%
4. Andrew Griffith 16.43%
5. Cllr Brandon Lewis 16.31%
6. James Bethell 14.39%
7. Mark Pawsey 12.39%
8. Anne McIntosh MP 12.33%
9. George Freeman 11.99%
10. Margot James 11.83%
11. Andrew Griffiths 8.82%
12. Syed Kamall MEP 8.28%
13. Melanie McLean 8.03%
14. Conor Burns 7.95%
15. Esther McVey 7.26%
16. Andrea Leadsom 6.03%
17. Amanda McLean 5.67%
18. Alexandra Robson 3.85%
19. Mark Menzies 3.43%
20. Steve Barclay 2.89%
21. Hannah Hall 2.88%
22. Tim Collins 2.82%
23. Heather Wheeler 1.84%
24. Damian Collins 1.32%
25. Antonia Dunn 1.32%
26. Matthew Collings 0.86%
27. Clive Allen 0.47%
28. Fiona Kemp 0.31%
29. Fiona Bruce 0.00%
30. Dr Richard Evans -0.63%
31. Laetitia Gunn -0.65%
32. Peter Cox -0.73%
33. Elizabeth Truss -1.38%
34. Anna Soubry -2.09%
35. Vicky Ford -2.36%
36. Pauline Latham -2.92%
37. Paul Maynard -2.99%
38. Julia Manning -3.21%
39. Sharon Buckle -3.28%
40. Kim Humphreys -3.52%
41. Sayeeda Warsi -3.97%
42. Nicholas Boles -4.70%
43. Tariq Ahmad -5.15%
44. Harriett Baldwin -5.88%
45. Jane Ellison -6.19%
46. Philippa Stroud -6.19%
47. Katy Lindsay -6.47%
48. Judith Symes -6.52%
49. Ashley Gray -6.68%
50. Amar Ahmed -6.94%
51. Pamela Singleton -7.02%
52. Maggie Punyer -7.80%
53. Lucy Shersby -8.41%
54. Andrew Percy -9.26%
55. David Gold -10.44%
56. Ali Miraj -11.11%
57. Pam Chesters -13.24%
58 Caroline Flynn-MacLeod -14.14%
59. Chris Heaton-Harris MEP -14.72%
60. Cordelia McCartney -16.70%
61. Suella Fernandes -19.59%
62. Priti Patel -21.43%
63. Dorothy Luckhurst -29.82%
64. Kulveer Ranger -30.68%
65. Alan Lockwood -31.10%
66. Jason Steen -31.25%
67 Karen Bradley -31.37%
68. Amber Rudd -36.77%
69. Jeremy Middleton -53.59%
70. Phillip Lee -69.33%

No rating awarded

A number of A listers have never stood for Parliament and are not included, or have not stood since the 1997 General Election. This raises the issue for some A listers as to the alternative experience they have that justifies their A list place, although a significant number are councillors.

Howard Flight is of course an oddity in this respect. If his vote in 2001 is compared to the 2005 General Election result he would have one of the highest ratings.

Louise Bagshawe
Gavin Barwell
Steve Brine
Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones
Howard Flight
Jackie Foster
Zac Goldsmith
Sam Gyimah
Rebecca Harris
Kay Hemmings
Pippa Hill
Kevin Hollinrake
Maria Hutchings
Jack LoPresti
Emma Moffett
Julie Moody
Wendy Morton
Beverley Nielsen
Hannah Parker
Adam Rickitt
Caroline Righton
Julie Rook
Laura Sandys
Jane Scott
Andrew Stephenson
Mel Stride
Simon Walker
Susan Williams
Kit Malthouse
Dr David Bull
Martin Callanan MEP
Timothy Coleridge
Angie Bray

If anyone would like to comment on the methodology then please let me know. Also, I'd quite like to do a second paper, on those denied A list membership despite great performance, so please let me know any suitable names. If you would like the data then please eMail me at - it will be released provided you agree to give me some credit


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